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Game usage numbers to public? / AH influence


Flrbb

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Ok, first of all. The title is a bit vague, but I couldn't think of better one right now. Sorry for that.

I was thinking about the prices changes in AH. Basically the net worth (game wise) of a card remains constant, because the attributes stay the same - no buff or nerf is announced for now. But on the other hand prices in AH change very much. As far as I can imagine there are two effects for an upward tendency and one cause why the price will/could drop.

Up1: a player buys a card and wants to trade for profit, so what ever it takes he will sell it for a higher price.

Up2: lower price cards will be bought first, the higher price cards will be bought last (but more players want to buy these cards time-wise together) this will rise its price. This effect is hard to describe, especially because English is not my native language.

Down: saturation of the marked. Each day the card count rises, each player get some cards. So - starting with common cards - no one will be interested in buying them. Assuming no new players will join the game.

This means that in long term all prices will drop to zero, but in between all prices (of rare and ultra rare cards) will rise constantly.

Anyhow, am interested in at which point of this curve we are at the moment. To estimate this, I would like to know how many cards are owned by the active player base and how many active players are in game. Also, it would be interesting if each player gets a booster dayly. This would be needed data to make some basic estimation.

I know this all is maybe confidential data, but.. well, the least thing I can do is asking for it. ;)

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The current market is only regulated by supply and demand. Therefore some cards that are currently in high demand (Shaman, Regrowth, Coldsnap, etc) have incredibly inflated prices that stay at a high level as long as supply and demand stay the same. And that will change as soon as the ratio of new player influx / new card influx decreases. Either the supply grows faster than right now (more boosters bought/gained) or the demand decreases (less new players). Rather than the cards currently owned you should instead be looking at how many players are currently active and how many are joining each week. The numbers for this might not even exist but maybe the devs have noted them somewhere.

There are also cards that have prices that are changing prices like a rollercoaster. Mine, Primeval Watcher, Frost Shard for example. But most of the cards that are like this don't have the same consistent demand that the essential cards mentioned above do. Due to their rarity they are very susceptible to changes in demand and supply though. So if less of these are dropped in booster packs the prices rise sky-high. Or if someone buys out the AH to resell them at higher value the prices also become artificially inflated. This does happen even though it is often not worth the risk for the "investor" to buy out a certain card. Most of these cards will be at their normal price range within a couple of days again. So this is not very worrisome.

In summary you shouldn't worry too much about inflated prices right now. Most of those are subject to change and will regulate themselves. The cards that I first mentioned might be more problematic but even they will come around in time once the market saturation rises. With the end of the open stresstest I hope that the devs will have implemented the capped prices (every or at least the essential cards will be automatically sold in AH at a fixed price by the system), thus enabling everybody to trade below a price cap so that single cards don't become worth multiple times of what they should be worth.

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I think that the AH stuff was just (maybe an important) example.

I understand him the way that he wants just statistical data or a way to query this data, this might include for example:

1. How many players are online

2. How many players are registered

3. Which cards are actually in the AH (with filtering by name, color, and so on) with which price.

4. How many player have solved all PvE maps on standard, advanced, expert.

5. By how many player was map x solved at which times.

6. How many boosters were bought in total, today, yesterday, ...

7. How many BFP do the players actually have, in total, average, median, ...

8. and so on.

Neox likes this
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1 hour ago, Kilian Dermoth said:

I think that the AH stuff was just (maybe an important) example.

I understand him the way that he wants just statistical data or a way to query this data, this might include for example:

1. How many players are online

2. How many players are registered

3. Which cards are actually in the AH (with filtering by name, color, and so on) with which price.

4. How many player have solved all PvE maps on standard, advanced, expert.

5. By how many player was map x solved at which times.

6. How many boosters were bought in total, today, yesterday, ...

7. How many BFP do the players actually have, in total, average, median, ...

8. and so on.

This would be very interesting to see indeed

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6 hours ago, Kaliber84 said:

With the end of the open stresstest I hope that the devs will have implemented the capped prices (every or at least the essential cards will be automatically sold in AH at a fixed price by the system),...

I read this for the first time. Is this plan somewhat official??

 

Anyhow, personally I am the most interested in something I'd call a saturation rate of the AH/player cards.

Edited by Flrbb
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It is something the devs have talked about quite a while ago. I think it was even before the closed beta that one of them stated they do intend (or at least contemplate) to make cards available in the AH with fixed prices so as to regulate the market with an upper cap to card values.

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14 hours ago, Kaliber84 said:

It is something the devs have talked about quite a while ago. I think it was even before the closed beta that one of them stated they do intend (or at least contemplate) to make cards available in the AH with fixed prices so as to regulate the market with an upper cap to card values.

You are right!

Upon the start of Open Beta, to get things going and create somewhat of a market flow, there will be a vendor named Server (or whatever) selling cards for X amount of weeks, until enough people gather the BFP and cards they want so the marketplace can continue on it's own.

About the statistical data - for now, we're tracking some of stuff that Killian mentioned, but I highly doubt we'll be able to graph those out or anything graphical like that. Concrete values in form of numbers would be possible and probably made public per request.

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18 hours ago, fiki574 said:

About the statistical data - for now, we're tracking some of stuff that Killian mentioned, but I highly doubt we'll be able to graph those out or anything graphical like that. Concrete values in form of numbers would be possible and probably made public per request.

Then let this be a Request:

1. How many active players (lets say logging in at least once a week or somewhat) are currently around?

2. How many Infect (also Mountaineer and Church of Negotiation) are currently owned by those players?

3. How many boosters are opened per day?

By the way, is this the right place for such requests?

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On 11/30/2018 at 9:28 AM, Flrbb said:

Then let this be a Request:

1. How many active players (lets say logging in at least once a week or somewhat) are currently around?

2. How many Infect (also Mountaineer and Church of Negotiation) are currently owned by those players?

3. How many boosters are opened per day?

By the way, is this the right place for such requests?

At this point, no. From Open Beta on wards, yes we will be able to provide these details, but now they're not good representatives in my opinion. 

When we hit Open Beta, just create a thread (something like "Statistical numbers megathread") and we'll work from there.

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Oh, sorry to mix that up. It is somewhat confusing, though. In the announcements there are two stickies: "Open beta" and "Open stress test", so I thought they are basically the same and the name is interchangeable.

Also, after a second read, the timestamp of both entries differ a lot. My bad. Anyhow, I (as someone who is not born with this kind of developers slang) would think that a stress test is done before a beta release, as I assume a beta would be the last thing before a official release/version.

Not all information in the Open Beta is outdated, so I like to suggest you un-stick it and copy/paste the valid infos into the other thread.

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