I've got the same error.
1) unpack client
2) unpack updater to the same directory
3) run updater
4) click "play" after update
5) try to log in with forum acc. First i got an error with incorrect password, fix it and now i'm getting "connection failed" error.
If i run "launcher.exe", i'm getting error:
Where can i get more logs to provide them for you?
UPD: It is strange, but after i wrote post i've tryied again and it works well)